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Kapitalo apsauga yra pagrindinė finansinių pasakų tema ir nepaprastai svarbi šių pasakų skaitytojui. Investavimas į akcijų rinką nėra žinomas dėl savo gebėjimo apsaugoti kapitalą per trumpą laiką. Ilgą laiką tai yra puikus būdas apsaugoti kapitalą, tačiau trumpuoju laikotarpiu visko gali nutikti. Taigi investuotojas visada pasveria riziką ir naudą investuojant į akcijų rinką. Akcijų rinkos turtas, paliktas neapsaugotas, gali greitai išnykti. Ši pasaka mus moko, kad „Kai nutinka blogų dalykų“, žinios ir praeities rezultatai suteikia nedidelį paguodą ir mažai paguodos. Šie vertybinių popierių biržos arba akcijų investicinių fondų investuotojai keliauja į kalnus, masiškai atsisako savo planų ir ieško saugaus obligacijų ar grynųjų pinigų sirenos skambučio.
Man patinka vartoti terminą „Kai nutinka blogų dalykų“, nes nesu painiavos mėgėjas. Kai kurie žmonės naudoja posakį „Juodoji gulbė“ apibūdindami „Kai nutinka blogų dalykų“. Kiti gali naudoti posakį „mažos tikimybės įvykis“. Kiti gali tai pavadinti įvykiu „Kartą gyvenime“. Nepriklausomai nuo to, kaip tai pavadinsi, kai tai atsitiks tau, jei tai atsitiks su tavimi, kai tai atsitiks su tavimi, tau nesvarbu, kaip tai bus vadinama. Jums tai reikš, kad turite daug mažiau pinigų nei turėjote prieš trumpą laiką.
Vardų šiai pasakai neįvardinsiu. Tačiau jei 2009 m. vasario pabaigoje arba kovo pradžioje išnagrinėsite sėkmingiausių akcijų investicinių fondų įrašus, atrasite daug sėkmingų investicinių fondų, kurie prarado daugiau pinigų savo investuotojams, nei jie kada nors uždirbo. Kaip tai gali būti? Kaip investiciniai fondai, turintys 10, 15, 20 ir 25 metų sėkmės rekordus, gali prarasti daugiau pinigų, nei jie kada nors sukūrė? Šiek tiek pagalvojus, atsakymas paprastas ir akivaizdus. Sėkmingų rezultatų derinys pritraukia arba privilioja naujus investuotojus, kuriuos traukia ankstesni rezultatai. Jie investuoja didelę dalį fondo pinigų į akcijų rinkos viršūnę, o kai rinka krenta, investicinis fondas krenta ir atsitiktinai valdo daugiausia pinigų, kuriuos jie kada nors valdė. Pažiūrėkime į pavyzdį.
Toliau pateiktoje lentelėje parodyta, kas gali nutikti per 30 metų sėkmingo investicinio fondo ciklo metu. Šiame hipotetiniame investiciniame fonde fondas pradeda valdyti 5 000 000 USD ir yra gana nežinomas. Pirmaisiais metais fondas atneša 15 % grąžą, todėl išauga iki 5 750 000 USD, o iš lūpų į lūpas į fondą pritraukiamas papildomas 1 000 000 USD investicinio kapitalo, nes sklinda žinia apie fondo valdytojo investicinį meistriškumą. Dar kartą 2 metais fondas duoda 15% grąžą ir į fondą pritraukiama daugiau pinigų. Tiesą sakant, rezultatai yra tokie geri ir tokie nuoseklūs – 15 % per metus, kad daugiau nei 25 metus kapitalas į fondą patenka 30 % per metus, palyginti su ankstesnių metų įplaukomis. Iki 28 metų pradžios fondas valdo daugiau nei 9 milijardus dolerių, o 28 metais į fondą įplaukia daugiau nei 1 milijardas dolerių. Žmonės negali pasisotinti.
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